China’s major ports benefiting from continued economic growth


We maintain our cautious view for China’s shipping sector. China’s economic growth in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growth averaging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Private consumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a share of GDP. This is good news for the country’s container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumes as a result.

China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. Indeed, we forecast average annual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chime with the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see private consumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy’s real growth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country’s economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China’s commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.6%, with container growth of 5.7% forecast for the year.

* 2015 port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to enlarge by 1.7%, with average growth of 1.8% during our forecast period.

* 2015 real trade growth forecast at 7.0% – a very slight decrease from 2014.

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Source: Business Monitor International via